Nov 23, 2015

Gas below $1? Good or bad?

The impact of lower gas prices on the economy can be seen in two ways. One; on the industry related - energy, and the other on the broader economy.

Obviously the impact on the energy sector is negative and the related mortgage industry is going to be negatively impacted (states/regions that have a positive correlation with the amount of money being spent on energy).

The broader economy will have a positive impact, due to the fact that people are going to have more disposable income from the lower prices they pay at the pump; and also hopefully the lowering of inflationary pressures due to lower transportation costs. The second factor has the potential to improve the entire consumer centric economy. 

A recent article in 24/7 Wall Street/USA today questions whether gas would go below $1 a gallon in states that have lowest taxes today and have refiners that have excess capacity.
http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/2015/11/23/the-case-for-1-gas/

Mar 19, 2015

What did the Federal Reserve have to say?

Based on what Janet Yellen had to say, seems like it is only a matter of time before rates rise - but she did seem to indicate that she wanted to be confident before raising rates. As loan originators, this is good news in the short term that rates are going to continue to hold steady in the short term. But ideally, you need to encourage your customers to lock in to lower rates while the going is good - and move them into the pipeline.

We at Peoples Processing, are ready for your overflow files that you might have as you grapple with the file volume. Check out www.peoplesprocessing.com for more information.

Dec 9, 2014

Mortgage Rates Continue to New November Lows

According to Mortgage New daily , Mortgage rates moved moderately lower again today, setting another new low for the month of November.  That said, the movement has been primarily restricted to the upfront costs associated with the same old rates.  In other words, the most prevalent contract rates remain 4.0% or 4.125% for top tier borrowers, but the upfront costs for those rates are a bit lower than they were on Friday.

The bond markets that dictate mortgage rate movement were almost perfectly flat today after some volatility in the morning.  While we didn't end up seeing a meaningful attempt to get to stronger levels, simply holding Friday's ground is a positive change.  It contributes to a trend that is currently more sideways and supportive compared to the trend in the second half of October which was characterized by slow, steady weakness.


Loan Originator Perspective


"Today is a great example of the market being range bound. We started the day testing the lower realm of the recent range, which was quickly rejected and we started trading back to the middle of the range. In my opinion this is good, as long as we don't break above the upper support level of the range, as the range serves as a guide to determine day to day rates. We can put a few numbers on it, but generally I would say 2.30-2.40% (rounded up/down) on the US 10 Treasury yield. Floating is a great scenario within this range to buy time to be within a closer date of closing to reduce the costs associated with your rate. Within 15 days I firmly believe should be closed." -Constantine Floropoulos, Quontic Bank


"Yields were unable to make a big move lower this morning, but they have held at support. The long term trend pointing toward lower mortgage rates continues to hold. I am back to my advice of floating all loans until you are within 15 days of funding and then locking. A 15 day lock will render you the best possible pricing." -Victor Burek, Open Mortgage



While Mortgage bonds opened higher and drifted lower during today's trading session we were able to keep all of Fridays gains and close above key level. It looks to me as if the market is setting its self up for a bond rally. Float for now as things unfold but do stay cautious and check in daily." -Manny Gomes, Branch Manager Norcom Mortgage

Nov 26, 2014

Good News for Housing and Consumers From FHA

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Despite dire predictions from many quarters the Federal Housing Administration's (FHA's) Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund (MMIF) has returned to solvency.  And it did it a full three years ahead of the best estimates back in 2012.  The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) said on Monday that the Fund has gained nearly $6 billion in value over the last year and now stands at $4.8 billion with a capital ratio of .41 percent.  One year ago that ratio was a negative .11 percent.

HUD made the financial announcement as it released its annual report to Congress.  An independent actuarial report shows that the fund has gone from a negative value to a growth of $21 billion within the last two years.

In September 2013 FHA had to draw $1.7 billion against its borrowing authority from the Treasury Department, the first time in its 79 year history it had required such support.  The draw came after the MMI failed to maintain its congressionally mandated capital-to-loan ratio of 2.0 percent for three consecutive years and an independent audit estimated it would not return to that ratio until 2017.  It now appears that it will reach 2.0 percent sometime in FY 2016 after regaining an additional $15.1 billion in value over the remainder of this fiscal year.  As late as December 2013 there were many who predicted the agency would have to return to Treasury to request more support.



HUD credited the improved financial picture to an aggressive set of policy actions.  Delinquency rates in the agency's portfolio of guaranteed loans has dropped by 14 percent and recovery rates improved by 16 percent since last year.  Since the housing crisis began FHA has made significant changes to underwriting standards, loss mitigation policies, and recovery strategies and has raised insurance premiums. 

"This year's report shows that the fundamentals of the Fund are strong," said HUD Secretary Julian Castro. "Over the past five years, FHA has taken a number of prudent actions to restore the Fund's fiscal health. This is positive news for the economy and the millions of American families that count on FHA."

 "Improving the performance of the Fund by $21 billion in two years is good news for the housing market," said Acting FHA Commissioner Biniam Gebre. "FHA will continue to focus on meeting its mission of creating responsible access, investing in our economy and preserving pathways to the middle class. We remain dedicated to giving more hard-working responsible families the chance to buy a home and not a returning to the days of reckless lending that caused so much pain for middle-class families and the economy."

David H. Stevens, President and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), said following the release of the report that the continued improvement in the value of the MMI Fund was good news for taxpayers and the program, as almost all of the vital metrics, including delinquencies, foreclosures, and recoveries on property disposition, continue to improve.

"Maintaining this trend will require FHA to continue its ongoing work to improve transparency and certainty around its loan quality assessment methodology, as well as to re-examine mortgage insurance premiums, both the amount and the structure. Premiums are currently at an all time high, and FHA needs to find the right balance so it can meet its mission and further grow its reserves by sustainably increasing volumes without being adversely selected should only the highest risk borrowers be willing to pay the high premiums," Stevens said.

Oct 27, 2014

When exactly do mortgage applications start to slow?

Is there any particular date when mortgage applications start to slow? We all know that nothing really (significant) happens in the mortgage market from Thanksgiving through the new year, but we were wondering if there was a certain date this happens ! Welcome thoughts from all our readers. And thank you very much for being part of our lives. Happy Thanksgiving (a month ahead !)