Mortgage Rates End Week at Lows
Mortgage rates
didn't manage the same sort of surge lower as that seen yesterday. In
fact, some lenders were unchanged, but on average, rates fell to their
lowest levels of the week. Most of the positivity came courtesy of
overnight movement in Europe and Asia. This started the day for rates
off on a strong foot and although mid-day weakness prompted many lenders
to hike rates a bit, the worst of the adjusted rate sheets were still
at least as good as yesterday's. That means the 30yr fixed best-execution rate remains at 4.625%.
Most of the improvements were seen in the form of lower borrowing
costs. At this point, we're closer to moving down to 4.5% than up to
4.75%.
After topping out briefly at 4.875% last Friday, getting back within
striking distance of 4.50% is no small relief for those hoping to see
moderation in the extended move higher of the past two months. Although
it was preceded by the worst week in recent memory, this week has been
the best of the year in terms of outright gains. It's a good thing too,
because if rates hadn't fallen at least this much, there would be less
of a case to be made for a consolidation in the week's ahead.
Unfortunately, a return of sub-4.0% rates would require a significant change
in economic conditions--enough to change the course of Fed policy. As
long as economic metrics continue in roughly the same vein, the best
rate-watchers can hope for is a broader consolidation between 4.375% and
4.875%. We stand a chance to be crossing into the lower half of that
range now and next week's data and events will likely be the deciding
factor. Until we break lower through that range (or until it looks
highly likely that we will), it makes most sense to look for
advantageous opportunities to lock the closer we are to the lower
bound.
Keep in mind that "advantageous" isn't necessarily limited to prospects for movement in rates, but also lock time frames.
For instance, a borrower who is 29 days away from closing has more
reason lock than one who is 31 days away, all things being equal. This
has to do with the lower costs involved with shorter term locks.
Lenders can offer better pricing for a 30 day lock than for the next
most common increment of 45 days (some lenders do 40, but you get the
idea). Even then, it's important to keep an eye on what's coming up
that could cause volatility. If a jobs report or Fed Announcement is
scheduled for the next day, the lock time frame becomes inconsequential
by comparison. In reality, any time you wait for the following day's
rates, you're taking a risk that they'll be worse than
today's--especially in this market.
Today's Best-Execution Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 4.625%
- FHA/VA - 4.25% -4.75% (depending on lender buy-down structure)
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.75%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.0-3.375% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- After rising consistently from all-time lows in
September and October 2012, rates challenged the long term trend higher,
but failed to sustain a breakout
- Uncertainty over the Fed's bond-buying plans is causing immense
volatility in rates markets and generally leading rates quickly higher
- Fears about the Fed's bond-buying intentions were proven
well-founded on May 22nd when rates rose to 1yr highs after the Fed
indicated their intention to taper bond buying programs sooner vs later
- The June 19th FOMC Statement and Press Conference confirmed the
suspicions. Although tapering wasn't announced, the Fed made no move to
counter the notion that they will decrease bond buying soon if the
economic trajectory continues
- Rates Markets "broke down" following that, as traders realized just
how much buy-in there was to the ongoing presence of QE. These
convulsions led to one of the fastest moves higher in the history of
mortgage rates and market participants have not been eager to be the
among the first explorers to head back into lower rate territory until
they're sure they'll have some company.
- (As always, please keep in mind that our
Best-Execution rate always pertains to a completely ideal scenario.
There are many reasons a quoted rate may differ from our average rates,
and in those cases, assuming you're following along on a day to day
basis, simply use the Best-Ex levels we quote as a baseline to track
potential movement in your quoted rate).